Fitch Ratings, the widely known international rating agency, announced today the rating for the Republic of Panama. Following is the text of the press release:
Fitch Ratings-New York-April 8, 2005: Fitch Ratings, the international rating agency, today affirmed the Republic of Panama’s long-term foreign currency rating of ‘BB+’. Fitch also affirmed the sovereign’s long-term local currency rating of ‘BB+’, the short-term foreign currency rating of ‘B’ and the country ceiling of ‘BBB’. The outlook on these ratings is stable.
“Fiscal slippage beyond what had been anticipated occurred in 2004 in Panama; however, against this, we have seen a strong economic recovery and the new administration’s efforts to strengthen public finances, as demonstrated by the prompt passage of a fiscal reform in January and improvements in fiscal transparency,” said Theresa Paiz Fredel, Director of Latin American Sovereign Ratings at Fitch.
The non-financial public sector (NFPS) registered an estimated deficit of about 5.0% of GDP last year, under new accounting methodology. However, if liabilities not recorded in public finances as a result of arbitration rulings against the state are included, the deficit rises to 6.2% of GDP. In addition, outstanding accounts payable (which were reduced from 3.6% of GDP) add another 0.8% of GDP, the 2004 deficit would approach 7% of GDP. As a result, Panama’s debt/GDP ratio is estimated to have increased to 68%, among the highest in its peer group. The authorities expect to reduce the NFPS deficit to 3.6% of GDP in 2005 with improved tax administration and the rationalization of expenses. As the 2005 budget does not take into account the recently approved fiscal reform, the deficit could be even lower. Nevertheless, Fitch will closely monitor fiscal outturns this year to see if implementation of the new fiscal package delivers the expected consolidation. If the deficit is not reduced substantially in 2005, renewed pressure on sovereign creditworthiness could arise.
With a legislative majority and strong popular support, the Torrijos government, which took office on September 1, 2004, is expected to tackle an ambitious reform agenda early in its term. In addition to the recently approved fiscal reform, the government is committed to obtaining passage of a social security reform and to the expansion of the Panama Canal.
“If meaningful fiscal consolidation is not achieved,” said Paiz-Fredel, “Fitch will be concerned that stronger GDP growth rates may not be sufficient to stabilize debt dynamics, let alone offset any future increase in public debt related to the Canal project.”
Dollarization, a stable financial system, moderate debt service needs, and the Government’s considerable financial and land assets support the sovereign’s ratings. Dollarization has resulted in a long history of monetary and price stability unseen in other emerging markets. In addition, it limits the probability of a devaluation-induced increase in public debt ratios or a balance of payment crisis.